Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Coelho, Giovanini Evelim
Da Silva Jr, Jarbas Barbosa
Struchiner, Claudio José
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Date of Issue2014
Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine
Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz
© 2014 Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. This paper was published in Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz and is made available as an electronic reprint (preprint) with permission of Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. The paper can be found at the following official DOI: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0074-0276140133]. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper is prohibited and is subject to penalties under law.