Probabilistic seismic loss estimation by stochastic simulation algorithms
Cheung, Sai Hung
Date of Issue2013
International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR) (11th : 2013 : New York, USA)
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Prior estimation of losses in a structure due to future uncertain earthquakes, especially those which can lead to disastrous consequences, is essential to reduce potential losses and assist recovery. In this paper, we are particularly interested in the evaluation of seismic loss probability distribution including its tail by evaluating the seismic loss exceedance probability. Taking into account uncertainties from structural mod-eling, the modeling of future uncertain excitation and the models for damage and loss analysis, the evaluation of the exceedance probability will unavoidably involve the computation of high-dimensional integrals. A new method based on stochastic simulation algorithms is proposed to compute such integrals more efficiently. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are shown by an illustrative example involving a multi-storey inelastic building.
© 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures, Taylor and Francis Group. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b16387-596].