A stochastic simulation based approach for seismic loss analysis and probability function computation
Cheung, Sai Hung
Date of Issue2012
World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15th : 2012 : Lisboa)
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Estimation of losses in a structure due to future earthquakes is essential to reduce potential losses and assist recovery. A new stochastic simulation based approach for the estimation of seismic loss probability function is proposed with the adoption of stochastic ground motion models coupled with nonlinear stochastic dynamic models. This proposed approach allows for a more comprehensive characterization of the probability distribution of the loss including the tail parts due to combinations of scenarios which can lead to extreme and catastrophic consequences. Those combinations of scenarios do not need to be pre-specified but are automatically included during the proposed simulation process. Another contribution of the proposed approach is that it allows for the simultaneous consideration of multiple types of losses and the evaluation of the exceedance probability of these losses at different combinations of thresholds. Seismic loss probability function estimation problem essentially becomes a reliability estimation problem with multiple performance objectives at different threshold combinations. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are shown by an illustrative example involving a multi-storey inelastic building.
© 2012 International Association for Earthquake Engineering (IAEE). This paper was published in 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering and is made available as an electronic reprint (preprint) with permission of International Association for Earthquake Engineering (IAEE). The paper can be found at the following official URL: [http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/WCEE2012_5765.pdf]. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper is prohibited and is subject to penalties under law.