dc.contributor.authorPowdthavee, Nattavudh
dc.contributor.authorYohanes, Eko Riyanto
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-14T08:25:24Z
dc.date.available2015-05-14T08:25:24Z
dc.date.copyright2015en_US
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.citationPowdthavee, N., & Riyanto, Y. E. (2015). Would you pay for transparently useless advice? A test of boundaries of beliefs in the folly of predictions. Review of economics and statistics, 97(2), 257-272.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10220/25553
dc.description.abstractStandard economic models assume that the demand for expert predictions arises only under the conditions in which individuals are uncertain about the underlying process generating the data and there is a strong belief that past performances predict future performances. We set up the strongest possible test of these assumptions. In contrast to the theoretical suggestions made in the literature, people are willing to pay for predictions of truly random outcomes after witnessing only a short streak of accurate predictions live in the lab. We discuss potential explanations and implications of such irrational learning in the contexts of economics and finance.en_US
dc.format.extent16 p.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesReview of economics and statisticsen_US
dc.rights© 2015 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the massachusetts institute of Technology. This paper was published in Review of Economics and Statistics and is made available as an electronic reprint (preprint) with permission of President and Fellows of Harvard College and the massachusetts institute of Technology. The paper can be found at the following official DOI: [http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/10.1162/REST_a_00453#.VVBTkY6qpBc]. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper is prohibited and is subject to penalties under law.en_US
dc.subjectDRNTU::Social sciences::Economic theory
dc.titleWould you pay for transparently useless advice? A test of boundaries of beliefs in the folly of predictionsen_US
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.contributor.schoolSchool of Humanities and Social Sciencesen_US
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00453
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US


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