Taylor rule and discretionary regimes in the United States: evidence from a k-state Markov switching model
Alba, Joseph Dennis
Date of Issue2016
School of Humanities and Social Sciences
We examine US monetary policies from 1973 to 2014 with the Taylor rule as a benchmark by utilizing a k-state Markov regime switching model in which the number and the periods of the regimes are endogenously determined. The model relates the federal funds rate with real time output gaps and inflation forecast. It endogenously identifies the periods of Taylor rule regime and discretionary regimes consistent with the US experience. The Taylor rule regime also coincides with periods of lower variability in inflation and in real GDP growth.
© 2016 Cambridge University Press. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100515000693].