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Title: Simulation-based severe weather-induced container terminal economic loss estimation
Authors: Cao, Xinhu
Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee
Keywords: Port Risk
Severe Weather
DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Cao, X., & Lam, J. S. L. (2018). Simulation-based severe weather-induced container terminal economic loss estimation. Maritime Policy & Management, 1-25. doi:10.1080/03088839.2018.1516049
Series/Report no.: Maritime Policy & Management
Abstract: Container terminals play a critical role in maritime supply chains. However, they show vulnerabilities to severe weather events due to the sea–land interface locations. Previous severe weather risk analysis focused more on larger assessment units, such as regions and cities. Limited studies assessed severe weather risks on a smaller scale of seaports. This paper aims to propose a severe weather-induced container terminal loss estimation framework. Based on a container terminal operation simulation model, monthly average loss and single event-induced loss are obtained by using historical hazard records and terminal operation records as model inputs. By studying the Port of Shenzhen as the case study, we find that the fog events in March lead to the longest monthly port downtime and the highest monthly severe weather-induced economic losses in the studied port. The monthly average loss is estimated to be 30 million USD, accounting for 20% of the intact income. The worst-case scenario is found to be a red-signal typhoon attack which results in nearly 20% decrease in the month’s income. The results provide useful references for various container terminal stakeholders in severe weather risk management.
ISSN: 0308-8839
DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2018.1516049
Rights: © 2018 Taylor & Francis. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [].
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:CEE Journal Articles

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