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Title: Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation
Authors: Cao, Xinhu
Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee
Keywords: Port
DRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineering
Catastrophe Risk
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Cao, X., & Lam, J. S. L. (2018). Simulation-based catastrophe-induced port loss estimation. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1751-12. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.008
Series/Report no.: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Abstract: Seaports are critical infrastructure systems in the international economy. They are at the same time vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made catastrophes due to their special coastal and low-lying locations. Traditional catastrophe risk analyses focused more on regions, port cities, and port communities. Limited studies assessed catastrophe risks on ports as a specific system. This paper aims to develop a catastrophe-induced port loss estimation framework, based on a port operation simulation model, actual terminal records and historical hazard records. By using the typhoon hazard and the Port of Shenzhen as a case study, we find that (1) the worst-case scenario of a typhoon impact could cause a total loss of US$0.91 billion for a terminal with 16 berths; and (2) the annual predicted typhoon-induced loss for the same terminal for the next 5 years will reach approximately US$64 million, accounting for 19.7% of the terminal net profit in 2015. The results provide useful references for various port stakeholders in catastrophe risk assessment and mitigation.
ISSN: 0951-8320
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.008
Rights: © 2018 Elsevier. This is the author created version of a work that has been peer reviewed and accepted for publication by Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier. It incorporates referee’s comments but changes resulting from the publishing process, such as copyediting, structural formatting, may not be reflected in this document. The published version is available at: [].
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:CEE Journal Articles

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