Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89057
Title: Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections
Authors: Garner, Andra J.
Weiss, Jeremy L.
Parris, Adam
Kopp, Robert E.
Horton, Radley M.
Overpeck, Jonathan T.
Horton, Benjamin Peter
Keywords: 21st Century
Sea Level Rise
DRNTU::Science::Geology
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Garner, A. J., Weiss, J. L., Parris, A., Kopp, R. E., Horton, R. M., Overpeck, J. T., & Horton, B. P. (2018). Evolution of 21st century sea level rise projections. Earth's Future, 6(11), 1603-1615. doi: 10.1029/2018EF000991
Series/Report no.: Earth's Future
Abstract: The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3–1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6–0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5–2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus‐based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/89057
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/47011
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000991
Rights: © 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:ASE Journal Articles

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