dc.contributor.authorPeng, Dongju
dc.contributor.authorHill, Emma M.
dc.contributor.authorMeltzner, Aron J.
dc.contributor.authorSwitzer, Adam D.
dc.identifier.citationPeng, D., Hill, E. M., Meltzner, A. J., & Switzer, A. D. (2019). Tide gauge records show that the 18.61‐year nodal tidal cycle can change high water levels by up to 30 cm. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(1), 736-749. doi:10.1029/2018JC014695en_US
dc.description.abstractThe lunar nodal cycle, produced by the varying declination of the Moon over a period of 18.61 years, drives changes in tidal amplitude globally. However, constraining the range of changes in tidal amplitude that can be expected over a nodal cycle from real observations is rarely considered for coastal hazard planning. In this study, we use hourly tide gauge observations with record lengths >19 years from 574 stations distributed worldwide to examine the contribution of the nodal modulation to monthly high water levels. Our results show that the influence of the lunar nodal cycle on high water levels is largest at tide gauge stations located in the Gulf of Tonkin, English Channel, and Bristol Channel, amounting up to 30 cm in range, suggesting that in the coming decades the impact of the nodal cycle on high water levels in those regions could be greater than that of global mean sea level rise, which is up to 17 cm by 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment report projections. We also examine the phase of nodal modulation and show that the estimated phases exhibit two clusters: one cluster (111° ± 10°) corresponds with the locations having a diurnal form of tides, whereas the other cluster (−59° ± 11°) corresponds with the locations exhibiting a semidiurnal form of tides. Nodal modulation in the diurnal and semidiurnal locations will peak again in 2025 and 2034, respectively, resulting in enhanced potential for coastal hazard in the respective regions.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNRF (Natl Research Foundation, S’pore)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMOE (Min. of Education, S’pore)en_US
dc.format.extent14 p.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceansen_US
dc.rights© 2019 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.en_US
dc.subjectExtreme Sea Levelsen_US
dc.subjectHarmonic Analysisen_US
dc.titleTide gauge records show that the 18.61‐year nodal tidal cycle can change high water levels by up to 30 cmen_US
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.contributor.researchEarth Observatory of Singaporeen_US
dc.contributor.schoolAsian School of the Environmenten_US
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US

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