Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84618
Title: Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments
Authors: Chan, Chung-Han
Keywords: Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
Earthquake Forecasting Models
Time-dependent Factors
Issue Date: 2016
Source: Chan, C.-H. (2016). Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 2177-2187. doi:10.5194/nhess-16-2177-2016
Series/Report no.: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Abstract: This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/84618
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/50423
ISSN: 1561-8633
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-2177-2016
Rights: © 2016 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:EOS Journal Articles

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