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Title: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
Authors: Kopp, Robert E.
Kemp, Andrew C.
Bittermann, Klaus
Horton, Benjamin P.
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
Gehrels, W. Roland
Hay, Carling C.
Mitrovica, Jerry X.
Morrow, Eric D.
Rahmstorf, Stefan
Keywords: Sea Level
Common Era
Issue Date: 2016
Source: Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C., Bittermann, K., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Gehrels, W. R., … Rahmstorf, S. (2016). Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(11), E1434-E1441. doi:10.1073/pnas.1517056113
Series/Report no.: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Abstract: We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.
ISSN: 0027-8424
Rights: © 2016 The Author(s) (published by National Academy of Sciences). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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