The application of Empirical Bayes approach for identifying and ranking hazardous junctions case study : Singapore signalized junctions
Wong, Yiik Diew
Date of Issue2010
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
The identification and ranking of hazardous road locations are important parts of road safety improvement programs. This paper describes the application of Empirical Bayes (EB) approach for identifying and ranking hazardous junctions. Accident, traffic, and junction geometric/environment data from 203 four-legged and 186 three-legged signalized junctions across western part of Singapore were collected. Accident prediction models were developed and safety of the junctions was estimated. After that, hazardous junctions were identified using probability of selecting the worst site concept and then ranked using PSI (potential for safety improvement) and LH (level of hazard) criteria. A total of 38 junctions were found as hazardous. The result shows that the use of PSI criterion is more favorable than LH criterion as it is better able to detect the top hazardous junctions with the largest number of accidents in the study period.
Journal of the Eastern Asia society for transportation studies
© 2010 Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. This paper was published in Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies and is made available as an electronic reprint (preprint) with permission of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. The paper can be found at the following official URL: [http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/easts/8/0/8_2062/_article]. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper is prohibited and is subject to penalties under law.