Can Lagrangian extrapolation of radar fields be used for precipitation nowcasting over complex Alpine orography?
Mandapaka, Pradeep V.
Date of Issue2012
In this study, a Lagrangian radar echo extrapolation scheme (MAPLE) was tested for use in very short-term forecasting of precipitation over a complex orographic region. The high-resolution forecasts from MAPLE for lead times of 5 min-5 h are evaluated against the radar observations for 20 summer rainfall events by employing a series of categorical, continuous, and neighborhood evaluation techniques. The verification results are then compared with those from Eulerian persistence and high-resolution numerical weather prediction model [the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling model (COSMO2)] forecasts. The forecasts from the MAPLE model clearly outperformed Eulerian persistence forecasts for all the lead times, and had better skill compared to COSMO2 up to lead time of 3 h on average. The results also showed that the predictability achieved from the MAPLE model depends on the spatial structure of the precipitation patterns. This study is a first implementation of the MAPLE model over a complex Alpine region. In addition to comprehensive evaluation of precipitation forecast products, some open questions related to the nowcasting of rainfall over a complex terrain are discussed.
DRNTU::Science::Physics::Meteorology and climatology
Weather and forecasting
© 2012 American Meteorological Society. This paper was published in Weather and Forecasting and is made available as an electronic reprint (preprint) with permission of American Meteorological Society. The paper can be found at DOI: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00050.1]. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper is prohibited and is subject to penalties under law.