Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/96295
Title: Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV-1 infections in rural Zambia : a modeling study
Authors: Nichols, Brooke E.
Thuma, Phil E.
Nouwen, Jan L.
Boucher, Charles A. B.
van Dijk, Janneke H.
Baltussen, Rob
Van de Wijgert, Janneke
Sloot, Peter M. A.
van de Vijver, David A. M. C.
Keywords: DRNTU::Engineering::Computer science and engineering::Computer applications::Life and medical sciences
Issue Date: 2013
Source: Nichols, B. E., Boucher, C. A. B., van Dijk, J. H ., Thuma, P. E., Nouwen, J. L., Baltussen, R., et al. (2013). Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in Preventing HIV-1 Infections in Rural Zambia: A Modeling Study. PLoS ONE, 8(3), e59549.
Series/Report no.: PLoS ONE
Abstract: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia. Methods A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm3. We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5–15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40–60% of the total population on PrEP. Results Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios. Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/96295
http://hdl.handle.net/10220/9867
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0059549
Rights: © 2013 Nichols et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:SCSE Journal Articles

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