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|Title:||Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes||Authors:||Cheong, Siew Ann
Tan, Teck Liang
Chew, Lock Yue
Sloot, Peter M. A.
Johnson, Neil F.
|Keywords:||DRNTU::Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes||Issue Date:||2014||Source:||Cheong, S. A., Tan, T. L., Chen, C.-C., Chang, W.-L., Liu, Z., Chew, L. Y., et al. (2014). Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes. Scientific Reports, 4, 3624-.||Series/Report no.:||Scientific reports||Abstract:||Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.||URI:||https://hdl.handle.net/10356/102327
|ISSN:||2045-2322||DOI:||http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep03624||Rights:||© 2014 Nature Publishing Group. This paper was published in Scientific Reports and is made available as an electronic reprint (preprint) with permission of Nature Publishing Group. The paper can be found at the following official DOI: [http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep03624]. One print or electronic copy may be made for personal use only. Systematic or multiple reproduction, distribution to multiple locations via electronic or other means, duplication of any material in this paper for a fee or for commercial purposes, or modification of the content of the paper is prohibited and is subject to penalties under law.||Fulltext Permission:||open||Fulltext Availability:||With Fulltext|
|Appears in Collections:||SPMS Journal Articles|
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