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dc.contributor.authorZhou, Qingjien_US
dc.contributor.authorWong, Yiik Diewen_US
dc.contributor.authorLoh, Hui Shanen_US
dc.contributor.authorYuen, Kum Faien_US
dc.identifier.citationZhou, Q., Wong, Y. D., Loh, H. S., & Yuen, K. F. (2018). A fuzzy and Bayesian network CREAM model for human reliability analysis – The case of tanker shipping. Safety Science, 105, 149-157. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2018.02.011en_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper proposes a quantitative human reliability analysis (HRA) model based on fuzzy logic theory, Bayesian network, and cognitive reliability & error analysis method (CREAM) for the tanker shipping industry. The common performance conditions (CPCs) in conventional CREAM approach are custom-modified to better capture the salient aspects of the situations and conditions for on-board tanker work. Fuzzy logic technique using triangle and trapezoidal membership functions is applied to model the uncertainty and ambiguity of the CPCs as well the control modes in CREAM. A Bayesian network reasoning model using the membership of CPCs as inputs is developed which determines the probability distribution of the control modes. Human error probability (HEP) is obtained from memberships of the control modes and the results of Bayesian network reasoning. A case study in tanker shipping industry with 18 crew members is provided, and the results show that the evaluation of HEP according to the proposed HRA model is very promising and the HRA model is consistent with the original CREAM approach. The sensitivity of the model is also checked against the inputs of the crew members. It is concluded that the enhanced HRA model is able to provide reliable human performance failure results.en_US
dc.format.extent14 p.en
dc.relation.ispartofSafety Scienceen_US
dc.rights© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This paper was published in Safety Science and is made available with permission of Elsevier Ltd.en_US
dc.subjectDRNTU::Engineering::Civil engineeringen_US
dc.subjectHuman Reliability Analysisen_US
dc.titleA fuzzy and Bayesian network CREAM model for human reliability analysis – The case of tanker shippingen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineeringen_US
dc.contributor.organizationMaritime Instituteen_US
dc.description.versionAccepted versionen_US
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