The future threat : a quantitative model for evaluating ASEAN’s counter-terrorism policy

Abstract

With militant fighters returning after the Islamic State(ISIS)’s defeat in 2019, Southeast Asia is posed to be the next terrorist hotspot, with multiple ISIS-linked affiliates citing the region for caliphate. Southeast Asian countries have thus historically turned to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) for administration of regional counter-terrorism measures, penning the ASEAN Convention on Counter Terrorism under the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime. As such, an evaluation of ASEAN’s counter-terrorism measures is prudent, yet research exposes a gap in evaluative counter-terrorism academia, especially through quantitative approaches. This paper therefore proposes a quantitative ASEAN counter-terrorism evaluation model through a longitudinal trend survey.