Nuking for land : do nuclear weapons aid in coercive bargaining in territorial disputes?

Abstract

Nuclear weapons are devastating instruments of war, that if used, have the potential to decimate entire cities and annihilate civilian population on an unfathomable scale. As such, it is no surprise that a credible nuclear threat can cause enormous terror and panic, possibly causing the target state to capitulate and accede to the challenger’s demands. This paper will examine whether nuclear weapons aid in coercive bargaining in general, and in territorial disputes. Statistical analysis using the MCT dataset will be employed, followed by a case study of the Third Taiwan Straits Crisis of 1995-1996. We find that nuclear weapons do not aid in compellence generally, and in territorial conflicts.