China’s Post-Corona future in Africa

Abstract

China provides funding and investment to African countries in exchange for their raw materials and minerals. But xenophobia, when combined with the sharp economic downturn resulting from the pandemic, threatens to undermine this tacit understanding. These disruptive trends hold important implications for the nature of this strategic relationship in a post-COVID-19 world. Will the coronavirus and xenophobic events dent China’s favourable image in Africa? Will their historically strong relationship with the continent be derailed, potentially jeopardising its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Chinese financial support? Lastly, what should African states be doing to capitalise on opportunities arising from the inevitable shift in global supply chain contingencies? These are key questions, not just for policymakers, but also for those in the private sector that seek to understand the fluid dynamics of the current environment. Africa’s relationship with China is complex and deeply intertwined. Some African countries are desperately indebted to China and all are in need of financial relief and aid to fight the virus. The future relationship will be shaped in part by how China helps Africa navigate its current debt predicament, which it helped create. The geopolitical impact of the coronavirus still has a very long way to play out, and rather than being a threat to China’s continental ambitions, could instead be a boost. An understanding and supportive stance by China could deepen its already strong ties on the continent, thus emboldening an acceleration of BRI in the region to the benefit of all. While implementing workable solutions is in the interest of both regions, the balance of power, for now, is skewed in favour of China. The Chinese approach will be calculated.