Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/143674
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dc.contributor.authorAng, Pei Shanen_US
dc.contributor.authorBebbington, Mark S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLindsay, Jan M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorJenkins, Susanna F.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-16T05:44:58Z-
dc.date.available2020-09-16T05:44:58Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.identifier.citationAng, P. S., Bebbington, M. S., Lindsay, J. M., & Jenkins, S. F. (2020). From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis : an example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 397, 106871-. doi:en_US
dc.identifier.issn0377-0273en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10356/143674-
dc.description.abstractThe dichotomy between probabilistic and scenario-based volcanic hazard assessments stems from their opposing strengths and weaknesses. The quantification of uncertainty and lack of bias in the former is balanced against the temporal narrative and communicability of the latter. In this paper we propose a novel methodology to bridge between the two, deriving a pseudo-probabilistic hazard estimate from a suite of dynamic scenarios covering multiple volcanic hazards and transitions in eruptive style, as designed for emergency management purposes, in a monogenetic volcanic field. We use existing and new models for eruption style transitions, which provide probabilities conditional on local environmental conditions, thus obtaining the relative likelihoods of each scenario at every location in the field. The results are interpreted in terms of the probability of various hazards and combinations of hazards arising from various scenarios at critical locations. Conversely, we also demonstrate that it may be possible to optimise the likelihood of the scenario allocations across desired locations for emergency management training purposes.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education (MOE)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation (NRF)en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Researchen_US
dc.rights© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).en_US
dc.subjectScience::Geologyen_US
dc.titleFrom eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis : an example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealanden_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolAsian School of the Environmenten_US
dc.contributor.researchEarth Observatory of Singaporeen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.106871-
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.identifier.volume397en_US
dc.identifier.spage106871en_US
dc.subject.keywordsHazardsen_US
dc.subject.keywordsDynamic Scenariosen_US
dc.description.acknowledgementThis work was completed as part of author PSA's Overseas Final Year Project supported by the CN Yang Scholars' Programme of Nanyang Technological University and hosted by University of Auckland. This work comprises Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution no. 262. This research is partly supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. MSB would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Natural Hazards Research Platform (grant 2015-MAU- 01-NHRP), while JML gratefully acknowledges support from the New Zealand Earthquake Commission. We would like to thank Josh Hayes, Gabor Kereszturi, James White, Karoly Nemeth, Peter Kokelaar, Bernd Zimanowski, Kazuhiko Kano, Ian Schipper, John Smellie, Larry Mastin and Alexander Belousov for providing valuable data and advice on elements of the method. We would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful and constructive comments.en_US
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