Evaluating pluvial flood hazard for highly urbanised cities : a case study of the Pearl River Delta region in China

Abstract

Rapid urbanisation and economic growth in developing Asian countries have exacerbated their exposure to flood hazards, particularly evident in low-lying urban cities that are currently facing increasing risks from extreme precipitations, likely made worse by the impending climate change. We present a set of simplified indices representative of the characteristics of rainfall-runoff process for evaluating pluvial flood hazard using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The highly urbanised Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China is studied as an example of mapping the regional pluvial flood hazard and assessing the socio-economic exposure at risk. The developed hazard map captures the broad patterns of high flood hazard zones when compared with reported surface water flooding hotspots and the PRD riverine flood map from the 2015 Global Assessment Report. Further analysis on the regional socio-economic profiles suggests that most PRD cities are faced with large flood loss potential, with estimates of approximate 23 million people and 2.4 trillion RMB Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exposed to high flood hazard. Mega cities Guangzhou and Shenzhen top the ranking with over 20% to 40% of their dense urban settlements in the high flood hazard zone. This highlights the impact of human activities on the natural surface runoff process, and the need for robust flood hazard assessment for better understanding and design of holistic solutions towards more adequate flood mitigation systems for continuous urbanisation and future climate conditions.