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Title: A Hybrid Prediction Model for Damage Warning ofA hybrid prediction model for damage warning of power transmission line under typhoon disaster Power Transmission Line Under Typhoon Disaster
Authors: Hou, Hui
Yu, Shiwen
Wang, Hao
Xu, Yan
Xiao, Xiang
Huang, Yong
Wu, Xixiu
Keywords: Engineering::Electrical and electronic engineering
Issue Date: 2020
Source: Hou, H., Yu, S., Wang, H., Xu, Y., Xiao, X., Huang, Y., & Wu, X. (2020). A hybrid prediction model for damage warning of power transmission line under typhoon disaster. IEEE Access, 8, 85038-85050. doi:10.1109/access.2020.2992528
Journal: IEEE Access
Abstract: To bolster the resilience of power systems against typhoon disasters, this paper develops a holistic framework of wind disaster warning for transmission lines. This paper proposes a hybrid prediction model to quantify the transmission line damage probability under typhoon disaster based on extreme value type I probability distribution, Monte Carlo method, and Random Forest. Specifically, this paper uses the extreme value type I probability distribution and the Monte Carlo method to simulate the random wind field, and predict the damage probability of transmission lines under each wind field using the Random Forest method. This paper takes typhoon “Mangkhut” in 2018 as a case study, and compare the performance of the hybrid model based on random wind field with the Random Forest method under predicted and measured wind field. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model can effectively utilize wind speed data to obtain a more reliable prediction and achieves the best synthetic similarity to the actual damage situations.
ISSN: 2169-3536
DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2992528
Rights: © 2020 IEEE. This journal is 100% open access, which means that all content is freely available without charge to users or their institutions. All articles accepted after 12 June 2019 are published under a CC BY 4.0 license, and the author retains copyright. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, as long as proper attribution is given.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:EEE Journal Articles

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