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Title: Effect of climate change and urbanisation on flood protection decision‐making
Authors: Daksiya, Velautham
Mandapaka, Pradeep V.
Lo, Edmond Y. M.
Keywords: Engineering::Civil engineering::Water resources
Science::Physics::Meteorology and climatology
Issue Date: 2020
Source: Daksiya, V., Mandapaka, P. V., & Lo, E. Y. M. (2021). Effect of climate change and urbanisation on flood protection decision‐making. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 14(1), e12681-. doi:10.1111/jfr3.12681
Project: the Singapore ETH Center Future Resilient Systems program; NTU's Nanyang Environment and Water Research Institute; Singapore Ministry of Education Tier II program 
Journal: Journal of Flood Risk Management 
Abstract: The changing climate and the rapid urbanisation may alter flood severity and influence the decision‐making process for flood management. In this study, a Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework for optimal decision‐making in flood protection is developed and applied to a central flood‐prone basin of Jakarta, Indonesia. Specifically, the decisions are on levees corresponding to protection under different rainfall return periods (RP), considering climate change and associated uncertainties, urbanisation, and evolving socio‐economic features of the flood plain. Three cases were studied to analyse future (year 2050) conditions (i) future rainfall/current urban, (ii) current rainfall/future urban and (iii) future rainfall/future urban. Future climate change projections from the NASA Earth Exchange are used to obtain information about changes in rainfall, whereas Landsat derived imperviousness maps along with the population projections are used for future urban conditions. Annual Expected Loss, Graduality, upgrade Construction cost and Net‐Socio‐Economic Vulnerability Index are the criteria used in the MCDA. It is found that climate change has a higher impact compared to urbanisation on the flood protection decisions. For the basin studied, the extreme future case of increased rainfall and urbanised conditions have the optimal decision in levee protection level corresponding to 250 years RP under current rainfall which corresponds to ~60 years RP under future rainfall.
ISSN: 1753-318X
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12681
Rights: © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management published by Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:IGS Journal Articles

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