Comparing China’s claims and policies in the East and South China Seas : implications for regional security

Abstract

What is the long-term impact of China’s territorial and maritime security policy in East Asia on regional security? To address this question, we compared China’s claims and actual policies related to the East China Sea and South China Sea and explored the motivations behind Beijing’s position and behaviour in the two disputes. More specifically, we examined a few interrelated issues: (a) similarities and differences in China’s claims in these two disputes from historical and legal perspectives, (b) China’s strategic and security calculations and its changing tactics in handing these two disputes in the past few years and (c) the major factors affecting China’s behaviour in the two disputes. Our conclusion is that China is unlikely to make any major concessions in the near future, and that regional security in East Asia will remain fraught with many uncertainties for a fairly long period of time.