Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/150529
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dc.contributor.authorKatagiri, Azusaen_US
dc.contributor.authorMin, Ericen_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-01T02:56:51Z-
dc.date.available2021-06-01T02:56:51Z-
dc.date.issued2019-
dc.identifier.citationKatagiri, A. & Min, E. (2019). The credibility of public and private signals : a document-based approach. American Political Science Review, 113(1), 156-172. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000643en_US
dc.identifier.issn1073-449Xen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10356/150529-
dc.description.abstractCrisis bargaining literature has predominantly used formal and qualitative methods to debate the relative efficacy of actions, public words, and private words. These approaches have overlooked the reality that policymakers are bombarded with information and struggle to adduce actual signals from endless noise. Material actions are therefore more effective than any diplomatic communication in shaping elites’ perceptions. Moreover, while ostensibly “costless,” private messages provide a more precise communication channel than public and “costly” pronouncements. Over 18,000 declassified documents from the Berlin Crisis of 1958–63 reflecting private statements, public statements, and White House evaluations of Soviet resolve are digitized and processed using statistical learning techniques to assess these claims. The results indicate that material actions have greater influence on the White House than either public or private statements; that public statements are noisier than private statements; and that private statements have a larger effect on evaluations of resolve than public statements.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofAmerican Political Science Reviewen_US
dc.rights© 2018 American Political Science Association. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.subjectSocial sciences::Political scienceen_US
dc.titleThe credibility of public and private signals : a document-based approachen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolSchool of Social Sciencesen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1017/S0003055418000643-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85056493691-
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.volume113en_US
dc.identifier.spage156en_US
dc.identifier.epage172en_US
dc.subject.keywordsBerlin Crisisen_US
dc.subject.keywordsCheap Talken_US
item.fulltextNo Fulltext-
item.grantfulltextnone-
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