Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/151920
Title: Mortality forecasts for long-term care subpopulations with longevity risk : a bayesian approach
Authors: Kogure, Atsuyuki
Fushimi, Takahiro
Kamiya, Shinichi
Keywords: Business::General
Issue Date: 2019
Source: Kogure, A., Fushimi, T. & Kamiya, S. (2019). Mortality forecasts for long-term care subpopulations with longevity risk : a bayesian approach. North American Actuarial Journal, 25(S1), S534-S544. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2019.1653202
Journal: North American Actuarial Journal
Abstract: This article aims to propose a new Bayesian methodology to forecast mortality rates of long-term care (LTC) subpopulations with longevity risk. A major obstacle to developing such a method is lack of data on the number of deaths in LTC subpopulations, which would prevent us from using conventional mortality models such as the Lee-Carter model. To overcome this difficulty, we propose an extended Lee-Carter model for mortality differential by LTC status that does not require data on the number of deaths in LTC subpopulations. We apply the proposed model to mortality forecasts for subpopulations under the public long-term care system in Japan. Our results show that the proposed method captures the heterogeneity in the mortality rates between the LTC statuses and provides reasonable forecasts.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/151920
ISSN: 1092-0277
DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2019.1653202
Rights: © 2019 Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved.
Fulltext Permission: none
Fulltext Availability: No Fulltext
Appears in Collections:NBS Journal Articles

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