Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/153502
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dc.contributor.authorRabonza, Maricaren_US
dc.contributor.authorLallemant, Daviden_US
dc.contributor.authorLin, Yolanda C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorTadepalli, Sanjanaen_US
dc.contributor.authorWagenaar, Dennisen_US
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Micheleen_US
dc.contributor.authorChoong, Jeanetteen_US
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Celine Jia Nien_US
dc.contributor.authorSarica, Gizem Mestaven_US
dc.contributor.authorWidawati, Bernadeti Ausie Mirandaen_US
dc.contributor.authorBalbi, Marianoen_US
dc.contributor.authorKhan, Ferozen_US
dc.contributor.authorLoos, Sabineen_US
dc.contributor.authorLim, Tian Ningen_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-06T07:58:11Z-
dc.date.available2021-12-06T07:58:11Z-
dc.date.issued2022-
dc.identifier.citationRabonza, M., Lallemant, D., Lin, Y. C., Tadepalli, S., Wagenaar, D., Nguyen, M., Choong, J., Liu, C. J. N., Sarica, G. M., Widawati, B. A. M., Balbi, M., Khan, F., Loos, S. & Lim, T. N. (2022). Shedding light on avoided disasters: measuring the invisible benefits of disaster risk management using probabilistic counterfactual analysis. UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2022, 1-25.en_US
dc.identifier.issn-en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10356/153502-
dc.description.abstractThe goal of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is to ensure that society continues to function, thrive, and recover quickly despite shocks arising from natural or human actions; to ensure, in short, that natural hazards do not become disasters. Success in the world of DRM means 'nothing happens,' but this poses a dilemma towards recognising and incentivising successful DRM interventions since they are made invisible by the very nature of their success. How then do we highlight and learn from successes if we do not see them? Likewise, how do we incentivise policymakers to make better risk-informed decisions when they are not credited for pro-active actions nor accountable for the consequences of doing nothing? This study discusses four types of situations where successful DRM interventions are made invisible: (i) success made invisible in the midst of broader disaster, (ii) success made invisible by nature of the success, (iii) success made invisible due to yet unrealised benefits, (iv) success made invisible due to the randomness of the specific outcome. We propose the use of probabilistic counterfactual analysis to calculate and highlight the `probabilistic lives saved' from disaster risk management interventions, that would otherwise remain unnoticed. Two case-studies are provided, a school seismic retrofit program in Nepal and a cyclone evacuation effort in India. An important conclusion that emerges from these studies is that the value of risk reduction interventions should not be judged on the basis of specific outcomes, but on the basis of a broader exploration of potential outcomes. The shift in focus from realised outcome to counterfactual alternative provides a framework to identify and learn from successes in DRM, and reward individuals and institutions who have displayed political bravery in committing to the implementation of DRM measures despite invisible benefits.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education (MOE)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation (NRF)en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relationNRF-NRFF2018-06en_US
dc.relation.ispartofUNDRR Global Assessment Report 2022en_US
dc.rights© 2022 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 IGO Licence (CC BY-NC IGO); https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo/legalcode. This paper was published as a contributing paper in the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Global Assessment Report 2022 and is made available with the permission of UNDRR.en_US
dc.subjectSocial sciences::Geography::Natural disastersen_US
dc.subjectEngineering::Computer science and engineering::Mathematics of computing::Probability and statisticsen_US
dc.titleShedding light on avoided disasters: measuring the invisible benefits of disaster risk management using probabilistic counterfactual analysisen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolAsian School of the Environmenten_US
dc.contributor.schoolSchool of Physical and Mathematical Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.researchEarth Observatory of Singaporeen_US
dc.contributor.researchInstitute of Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM)en_US
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.undrr.org/publication/shedding-light-avoided-disasters-measuring-invisible-benefits-disaster-risk-reduction-
dc.identifier.spage1en_US
dc.identifier.epage25en_US
dc.subject.keywordsDisaster Risk Managementen_US
dc.subject.keywordsCounterfactual Analysisen_US
dc.subject.keywordsProbability Analysisen_US
dc.description.acknowledgementWe thank Dr. Nama Budhathoki, Kathmandu Living Labs and the GFDRR Open Data for Resilience Initiative for data on retrofitted schools in Nepal. This project is supported by the National Research Foundation, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore under the NRF-NRFF2018-06 award, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), the National Research Foundation of Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Center of Excellence initiative.en_US
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crisitem.author.deptAsian School of the Environment-
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