Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/154045
Title: Simulating the transport and dispersal of volcanic ash clouds with initial conditions created by a 3D plume model
Authors: Cao, Zhixuan
Bursik, Marcus
Yang, Qingyuan
Patra, Abani
Keywords: Science::Geology
Issue Date: 2021
Source: Cao, Z., Bursik, M., Yang, Q. & Patra, A. (2021). Simulating the transport and dispersal of volcanic ash clouds with initial conditions created by a 3D plume model. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 704797-. https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.704797
Project: NRF2018NRFNSFC003ES-010 
Journal: Frontiers in Earth Science 
Abstract: Volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models simulate atmospheric transport of ash from a volcanic source represented by parameterized concentration of ash with height. Most VATD models represent the volcanic plume source as a simple line with a parameterized ash emission rate as a function of height, constrained only by a total mass eruption rate (MER) for a given total rise height. However, the actual vertical ash distribution in volcanic plumes varies from case to case, having complex dependencies on eruption source parameters, such as grain size, speed at the vent, vent size, buoyancy flux, and atmospheric conditions. We present here for the first time the use of a three-dimensional (3D) plume model based on conservation laws to represent the ash cloud source without any prior assumption or simplification regarding plume geometry. By eliminating assumed behavior associated with a parameterized plume geometry, the predictive skill of VATD simulations is improved. We use our recently developed volcanic plume model based on a 3D smoothed-particle hydrodynamic Lagrangian method and couple the output to a standard Lagrangian VATD model. We apply the coupled model to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach. Our investigation reveals that initial particle distribution in the vertical direction, including within the umbrella cloud, has more impact on the long-range transport of ash clouds than does the horizontal distribution. Comparison with satellite data indicates that the 3D model-based distribution of ash particles through the depth of the volcanic umbrella cloud, which is much lower than the observed maximum plume height, produces improved long-range VATD simulations. We thus show that initial conditions have a significant impact on VATD, and it is possible to obtain a better estimate of initial conditions for VATD simulations with deterministic, 3D forward modeling of the volcanic plume. Such modeling may therefore provide a path to better forecasts lessening the need for user intervention, or attempts to observe details of an eruption that are beyond the resolution of any potential satellite or ground-based technique, or a posteriori creating a history of ash emission height via inversion.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/154045
ISSN: 2296-6463
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.704797
Schools: Asian School of the Environment 
Research Centres: Earth Observatory of Singapore 
Rights: © 2021 Cao, Bursik, Yang and Patra. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:ASE Journal Articles
EOS Journal Articles

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
feart-09-704797.pdf6.21 MBAdobe PDFThumbnail
View/Open

SCOPUSTM   
Citations 50

5
Updated on Mar 26, 2024

Web of ScienceTM
Citations 50

3
Updated on Oct 24, 2023

Page view(s)

142
Updated on Mar 29, 2024

Download(s) 50

67
Updated on Mar 29, 2024

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


Plumx

Items in DR-NTU are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.