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dc.contributor.authorCao, Zhixuanen_US
dc.contributor.authorBursik, Marcusen_US
dc.contributor.authorYang, Qingyuanen_US
dc.contributor.authorPatra, Abanien_US
dc.identifier.citationCao, Z., Bursik, M., Yang, Q. & Patra, A. (2021). Simulating the transport and dispersal of volcanic ash clouds with initial conditions created by a 3D plume model. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 704797-.
dc.description.abstractVolcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models simulate atmospheric transport of ash from a volcanic source represented by parameterized concentration of ash with height. Most VATD models represent the volcanic plume source as a simple line with a parameterized ash emission rate as a function of height, constrained only by a total mass eruption rate (MER) for a given total rise height. However, the actual vertical ash distribution in volcanic plumes varies from case to case, having complex dependencies on eruption source parameters, such as grain size, speed at the vent, vent size, buoyancy flux, and atmospheric conditions. We present here for the first time the use of a three-dimensional (3D) plume model based on conservation laws to represent the ash cloud source without any prior assumption or simplification regarding plume geometry. By eliminating assumed behavior associated with a parameterized plume geometry, the predictive skill of VATD simulations is improved. We use our recently developed volcanic plume model based on a 3D smoothed-particle hydrodynamic Lagrangian method and couple the output to a standard Lagrangian VATD model. We apply the coupled model to the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach. Our investigation reveals that initial particle distribution in the vertical direction, including within the umbrella cloud, has more impact on the long-range transport of ash clouds than does the horizontal distribution. Comparison with satellite data indicates that the 3D model-based distribution of ash particles through the depth of the volcanic umbrella cloud, which is much lower than the observed maximum plume height, produces improved long-range VATD simulations. We thus show that initial conditions have a significant impact on VATD, and it is possible to obtain a better estimate of initial conditions for VATD simulations with deterministic, 3D forward modeling of the volcanic plume. Such modeling may therefore provide a path to better forecasts lessening the need for user intervention, or attempts to observe details of an eruption that are beyond the resolution of any potential satellite or ground-based technique, or a posteriori creating a history of ash emission height via inversion.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education (MOE)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation (NRF)en_US
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Earth Scienceen_US
dc.rights© 2021 Cao, Bursik, Yang and Patra. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.en_US
dc.titleSimulating the transport and dispersal of volcanic ash clouds with initial conditions created by a 3D plume modelen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolAsian School of the Environmenten_US
dc.contributor.researchEarth Observatory of Singaporeen_US
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.subject.keywordsInitial Conditionsen_US
dc.description.acknowledgementThis work was supported by National Science Foundation awards 1521855, 1621853, and 1821311, 1821338, and 2004302 and by the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative (project number: NRF2018NRFNSFC003ES-010).en_US
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