Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/156674
Title: Causal linkages of output growth and interest rate from US and China to ASEAN-5 economies and among ASEAN-5 economies
Authors: Tay, Joshua Zhi Wei
Tan, Sean Han Wei
Wong, Jing Yi
Keywords: Social sciences::Economic theory
Issue Date: 2022
Publisher: Nanyang Technological University
Source: Tay, J. Z. W., Tan, S. H. W. & Wong, J. Y. (2022). Causal linkages of output growth and interest rate from US and China to ASEAN-5 economies and among ASEAN-5 economies. Final Year Project (FYP), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. https://hdl.handle.net/10356/156674
Abstract: In our study, we will be answering 3 research questions. Firstly, what are the output and interest rate linkages among the ASEAN-5 countries? Secondly, is China’s influence over ASEAN-5 stronger than the US? Lastly, we will explore how ASEAN-5 can position itself to benefit from the current global economic dynamics and environment. Within the VEC framework, we examined Granger causality from output growth of the US and China to ASEAN-5 economies and among ASEAN-5 economies. Using VAR, we also examined Granger causality from interest rates of the US and China to ASEAN-5 economies, and from interest rates of the ASEAN-5 economies to their output growth. We found that the Philippines and Thailand are the most influential countries in terms of GDP growth and interest rates within ASEAN-5. Additionally, the US is still an important economic growth driver for ASEAN-5 as its economic growth is still more influential in affecting ASEAN-5 GDP growth, although China’s interest rate is more influential than the US in affecting ASEAN-5 GDP growth. Based on the results, we recommend ASEAN countries to continue enhancing regional integration within ASEAN through intra-ASEAN investments and trade and to diversify their risks by avoiding over-reliance on China.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/156674
Fulltext Permission: restricted
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:SSS Student Reports (FYP/IA/PA/PI)

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