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Title: Slip rate deficit and earthquake potential on shallow megathrusts
Authors: Lindsey, Eric Ostrom
Mallick, Rishav
Hubbard, Judith
Bradley, Kyle
Almeida, Rafael V.
Moore, James Daniel Paul
Bürgmann, Roland
Hill, Emma M.
Keywords: Science::Geology::Volcanoes and earthquakes
Issue Date: 2021
Source: Lindsey, E. O., Mallick, R., Hubbard, J., Bradley, K., Almeida, R. V., Moore, J. D. P., Bürgmann, R. & Hill, E. M. (2021). Slip rate deficit and earthquake potential on shallow megathrusts. Nature Geoscience, 14, 321-326.
Project: NRF-NRFI05-2019-0009
Journal: Nature Geoscience 
Abstract: Most destructive tsunamis are caused by seismic slip on the shallow part of offshore megathrusts. The likelihood of this behaviour is partly determined by the interseismic slip rate deficit, which is often assumed to be low based on frictional studies of shallow fault material. Here we present a new method for inferring the slip rate deficit from geodetic data that accounts for the stress shadow cast by frictionally locked patches, and show that this approach greatly improves our offshore resolution. We apply this technique to the Cascadia and Japan Trench megathrusts and find that wherever locked patches are present, the shallow fault generally has a slip rate deficit between 80 and 100% of the plate convergence rate, irrespective of its frictional properties. This finding rules out areas of low kinematic coupling at the trench considered by previous studies. If these areas of the shallow fault can slip seismically, global tsunami hazard could be higher than currently recognized. Our method identifies critical locations where seafloor observations could yield information about frictional properties of these faults in order to better understand their slip behaviour.
ISSN: 1752-0894
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00736-x
Rights: © 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. All rights reserved. This paper was published in Nature Geoscience and is made available with permission of The Author(s).
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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