Not people power but people ideology: the role of protestor ideology in authoritarian regimes' post-transition politics

Abstract

Due to its intangible nature, the ideological factor has seldom been given consideration in the study of transition politics. Although transitology scholars posit factors such as elite splits and effective popular uprisings as causes of transition, these theories fall short of explaining the disparity in post-transition political developments. This article aims to fill the gap by examining the ideologies underpinning the mass mobilizations of Indonesia’s 1998 and Malaysia’s 2018 transitions. The following argument is made: when protestors’ ideology undermines the ideational foundation of the old order, elites forming the new government are incentivized to implement reforms. These institutional barriers help prevent the resurrection of the ousted faction, hence minimizing the threat of a prompt reversal in transition outcomes. Ultimately, this study seeks to supplement the literature on transition politics by recognizing the potential of the people’s ideology in shaping post-transition trajectories.