Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/157200
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dc.contributor.authorDura, Tinaen_US
dc.contributor.authorGarner, Andra J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWeiss, Roberten_US
dc.contributor.authorKopp, Robert E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorEngelhart, Simon E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWitter, Robert C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBriggs, Richard W.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMueller, Charles S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Alan R.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHorton, Benjamin Peteren_US
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-10T01:49:31Z-
dc.date.available2022-05-10T01:49:31Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationDura, T., Garner, A. J., Weiss, R., Kopp, R. E., Engelhart, S. E., Witter, R. C., Briggs, R. W., Mueller, C. S., Nelson, A. R. & Horton, B. P. (2021). Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise. Nature Communications, 12(1), 7119-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8en_US
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10356/157200-
dc.description.abstractThe amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education (MOE)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation (NRF)en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relationMOE2019-T3-1-004en_US
dc.relationMOE2018-T2-1-030en_US
dc.relation.ispartofNature Communicationsen_US
dc.rights© 2021 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.en_US
dc.subjectScience::Geologyen_US
dc.titleChanging impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level riseen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolAsian School of the Environmenten_US
dc.contributor.researchEarth Observatory of Singaporeen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8-
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.identifier.pmid12-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85120849056-
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.volume12en_US
dc.identifier.spage7119en_US
dc.subject.keywordsSubduction Zoneen_US
dc.subject.keywordsTsunamisen_US
dc.subject.keywordsFuture Sea-Level Riseen_US
dc.description.acknowledgementThis work was supported by funding from National Science Foundation awards to T.D. (EAR-1624795), T.D. and B.P.H. (EAR-1624533), R.W. (DGE-1735139 and GLD-1630099), A.J.G. (EAR-1625150), and R.E.K. (ICER-1663807), and from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to R.E.K. (80NSSC17K0698). B.P.H. is also supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004 and MOE2018-T2-1-030, the National Research Foundation Sin- gapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. R.C.W., R.W.B., C.S.M., and A.R.N. are supported by the Earth- quake Hazard Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. This work is a contribution to PALSEA2 (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise) and the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) Project 639 and 725. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 417.en_US
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