Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/157206
Title: A maximum rupture model for the central and southern Cascadia subduction zone—reassessing ages for coastal evidence of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis
Authors: Nelson, Alan R.
DuRoss, Christopher B.
Witter, Robert C.
Kelsey, Harvey M.
Engelhart, Simon E.
Mahan, Shannon A.
Gray, Harrison J.
Hawkes, Andrea D.
Horton, Benjamin Peter
Padgett, Jason S.
Keywords: Science::Geology
Issue Date: 2021
Source: Nelson, A. R., DuRoss, C. B., Witter, R. C., Kelsey, H. M., Engelhart, S. E., Mahan, S. A., Gray, H. J., Hawkes, A. D., Horton, B. P. & Padgett, J. S. (2021). A maximum rupture model for the central and southern Cascadia subduction zone—reassessing ages for coastal evidence of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis. Quaternary Science Reviews, 261, 106922-. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106922
Project: MOE2019-T3-1-004 
MOE2018-T2-1-030 
Journal: Quaternary Science Reviews 
Abstract: A new history of great earthquakes (and their tsunamis) for the central and southern Cascadia subduction zone shows more frequent (17 in the past 6700 yr) megathrust ruptures than previous coastal chronologies. The history is based on along-strike correlations of Bayesian age models derived from evaluation of 554 radiocarbon ages that date earthquake evidence at 14 coastal sites. We reconstruct a history that accounts for all dated stratigraphic evidence with the fewest possible ruptures by evaluating the sequence of age models for earthquake or tsunami contacts at each site, comparing the degree of temporal overlap of correlated site age models, considering evidence for closely spaced earthquakes at four sites, and hypothesizing only maximum-length megathrust ruptures. For the past 6700 yr, recurrence for all earthquakes is 370–420 yr. But correlations suggest that ruptures at ∼1.5 ka and ∼1.1 ka were of limited extent (<400 km). If so, post-3-ka recurrence for ruptures extending throughout central and southern Cascadia is 510–540 yr. But the range in the times between earthquakes is large: two instances may be ∼50 yr, whereas the longest are ∼550 and ∼850 yr. The closely spaced ruptures about 1.6 ka may illustrate a pattern common at subduction zones of a long gap ending with a great earthquake rupturing much of the subduction zone, shortly followed by a rupture of more limited extent. The ruptures of limited extent support the continued inclusion of magnitude-8 earthquakes, with longer ruptures near magnitude 9, in assessments of seismic hazard in the region.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/157206
ISSN: 0277-3791
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.106922
Rights: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:ASE Journal Articles
EOS Journal Articles

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