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Title: Order matters: the benefits of ordinal fragility curves for damage and loss estimation
Authors: Nguyen, Michele
Lallemant, David
Keywords: Science::Geology
Issue Date: 2022
Source: Nguyen, M. & Lallemant, D. (2022). Order matters: the benefits of ordinal fragility curves for damage and loss estimation. Risk Analysis, 42(5), 1136-1148.
Project: NRF-NRFF2018-06 
Journal: Risk Analysis 
Abstract: Probabilistic loss assessments from natural hazards require the quantification of structural vulnerability. Building damage data can be used to estimate fragility curves to obtain realistic descriptions of the relationship between a hazard intensity measure and the probability of exceeding certain damage grades. Fragility curves based on the lognormal cumulative distribution function are popular because of their empirical performance as well as theoretical properties. When we are interested in estimating exceedance probabilities for multiple damage grades, these are usually derived per damage grade via separate probit regressions. However, they can also be obtained simultaneously through an ordinal model which treats the damage grades as ordered and related instead of nominal and distinct. When we use nominal models, a collapse fragility curve is constructed by treating data of "near-collapse" and "no damage" the same: as data of noncollapse. This leads to a loss of information. Using synthetic data as well as real-life data from the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we provide one of the first formal demonstrations of multiple advantages of the ordinal model over the nominal approach. We show that modeling the ordering of damage grades explicitly through an ordinal model leads to higher sensitivity to the data, parsimony and a lower risk of overfitting, noncrossing fragility curves, and lower associated uncertainty.
ISSN: 0272-4332
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13815
Schools: Asian School of the Environment 
Research Centres: Earth Observatory of Singapore 
Rights: © 2021 The Authors. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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