System dynamic modelling of patient flow and transferral problem in a mixed public-private healthcare system: a case study of Hong Kong SAR

Abstract

The current healthcare system in Hong Kong is experiencing pressure due to constrained resources, with dramatic increases in inpatient services queue lengths, dissatisfaction with the working environment, unacceptable workforce arrangements and high turnover rate of hospital staff. To maintain the robustness of the healthcare system and a sustainable inpatients flow, the Food and Health Bureau launched a public-private partnership programme to utilise the resources of the public and private hospitals. This research investigates the potential for extension of the programme and further enhancing the sustainability of the long-term inpatient services under a mixed public-private healthcare policy via system dynamic modelling. The findings show that an increase of human resources in public hospitals does not substantially improve inpatient flow rate performance. Further, the results from the system dynamic approach provide insights into the expansion of the service areas of the programme and suggest increasing the number of referrals to private hospitals.