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dc.contributor.authorYang, Qingyuanen_US
dc.contributor.authorPitman, E. Bruceen_US
dc.contributor.authorSpiller, Elaineen_US
dc.contributor.authorBursik, Marcusen_US
dc.contributor.authorBevilacqua, Andreaen_US
dc.identifier.citationYang, Q., Pitman, E. B., Spiller, E., Bursik, M. & Bevilacqua, A. (2020). Novel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measures. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 476(2242), 20200161-.
dc.description.abstractStatistical emulators are a key tool for rapidly producing probabilistic hazard analysis of geophysical processes. Given output data computed for a relatively small number of parameter inputs, an emulator interpolates the data, providing the expected value of the output at untried inputs and an estimate of error at that point. In this work, we propose to fit Gaussian Process emulators to the output from a volcanic ash transport model, Ash3d. Our goal is to predict the simulated volcanic ash thickness from Ash3d at a location of interest using the emulator. Our approach is motivated by two challenges to fitting emulators-characterizing the input wind field and interactions between that wind field and variable grain sizes. We resolve these challenges by using physical knowledge on tephra dispersal. We propose new physically motivated variables as inputs and use normalized output as the response for fitting the emulator. Subsetting based on the initial conditions is also critical in our emulator construction. Simulation studies characterize the accuracy and efficiency of our emulator construction and also reveal its current limitations. Our work represents the first emulator construction for volcanic ash transport models with considerations of the simulated physical process.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education (MOE)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Research Foundation (NRF)en_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciencesen_US
dc.rights© 2020 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.en_US
dc.subjectEngineering::Environmental engineeringen_US
dc.titleNovel statistical emulator construction for volcanic ash transport model Ash3d with physically motivated measuresen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.contributor.schoolAsian School of the Environmenten_US
dc.contributor.researchEarth Observatory of Singaporeen_US
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.subject.keywordsGaussian Process Emulatoren_US
dc.description.acknowledgementThis work was supported by National Science Foundation Hazards SEES grant number 1521855 to G. A. Valentine, M. I. Bursik, E. B. Pitman and A. K. Patra. This work was supported by National Science Foundation Division Of Mathematical Sciences grant number 1821338 to E.S. Q.Y. was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative (project number: NRF2018NRF-NSFC003ES-010). The work comprises Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution no. 315.en_US
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