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Title: What is the probability of unexpected eruptions from potentially active volcanoes or regions?
Authors: Burgos, Vanesa
Jenkins, Susanna F.
Bebbington, Mark
Newhall, Chris
Taisne, Benoit
Keywords: Science::Geology
Issue Date: 2022
Source: Burgos, V., Jenkins, S. F., Bebbington, M., Newhall, C. & Taisne, B. (2022). What is the probability of unexpected eruptions from potentially active volcanoes or regions?. Bulletin of Volcanology, 84(11), 97-.
Journal: Bulletin of Volcanology 
Abstract: Since the start of the twentieth century, 101 potentially active volcanoes have produced their first Holocene eruption, as recorded in the volcanoes of the world (VOTW) database. The reactivation of potentially active volcanoes is often a surprise, since they tend to be less well-studied and unmonitored. The first step towards preparing for these unexpected eruptions is to establish how often potentially active volcanoes have erupted in the past. Here, we use our previously developed FRESH (First Recorded EruptionS in the Holocene) database to estimate the past regional Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of these unexpected events. Within the most complete portions of the FRESH database, a FRESH (i.e., the first recorded eruption from a potentially active volcano) has occurred as frequently as every ~ 7 years in the Pacific Ocean region (~ 50 years of relatively complete record) and ~ 8 years in Izu, Volcano, and the Mariana Islands region (~ 150 years of relatively complete record). We use the regional frequency to estimate the annual probability of a FRESH at individual potentially active volcanoes in selected regions of Asia–Pacific, which ranged from 0.003 for Izu, Volcano, and Mariana Islands to 1.35 × 10−5 for Luzon. Population exposure around potentially active volcanoes showed that at volcanoes such as Kendeng (Indonesia) and Laguna Caldera (Philippines), more than 30 million people reside within 100 km of the summit. With this work, we hope to establish how often potentially active volcanoes erupt, while identifying which regions and which potentially active volcanoes may require more attention.
ISSN: 0258-8900
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-022-01605-0
DOI (Related Dataset): 10.21979/N9/4JLCSO
Rights: © 2022 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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