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Title: A new approach to cold surge classification in East Asia
Authors: Kumar, Anupam
Keywords: Engineering::Environmental engineering
Issue Date: 2021
Source: Kumar, A. (2021). A new approach to cold surge classification in East Asia. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 23659-.
Journal: Scientific Reports 
Abstract: Evidence showing a strengthening of intense cold surge event (CSE) in East Asia, e.g. CSE of Jan 2016 and Jan-Feb 2008, is focusing attention towards the science of CSE onset prediction. Predicting the onset of such strong CSEs remains elusive as the extent of these surges varies over spatial and temporal scales. Changes in radiative cooling over Siberia in winter as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Moreover, unprecedented and long lasting CSEs in East Asia have a very distinct Jet Stream pattern via their shifts from the climatological mean, influencing the lower troposphere. Here, using modelling framework we propose a new relationship between Jet Stream and Aleutian Low for identifying and characterizing atmospheric process that leads to CSEs in East Asia. Our results reveal new insight into the mechanisms of CSEs occurrences, the absence of which may lead to major constraints on reducing CSE onset prediction error.
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-02873-0
Schools: Interdisciplinary Graduate School (IGS) 
Organisations: National Environment Agency
Research Centres: Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management 
Rights: © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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