Logistics in the competitive environment of e-commerce: a scenario-planning framework for uncertain futures

Abstract

Within the freight industry, ocean and air freight alone are solely responsible for facilitating 90% of global trade. This has been reinforced by the rise in e-commerce shipping demand, which is only expected to grow further in time. External forces acting on the freight industry have often led to a highly volatile shipping environment, which have seen both carriers and shippers impacted by unforeseen circumstances. During the pandemic, governmental regulations resulted in large-scale supply chain disruptions that saw shippers struggle to maintain lead times with their shipments, while carriers generally profited on the back of a surge in demand. On the flipside, the recent market trajectory has pointed to a general decline in freight rates as shippers hold on to inventory, largely employing a “just-in-case” model. However, questions remain on the type of uncertainties that the freight market could be subject to in the near future. As more businesses make the digital pivot to e-commerce, there is a need for sellers to understand the trends in the freight market and how they could affect future supply chain mechanisms. This report ultimately aims to consolidate general market trends and forces at play on the ocean and air freight industries. The consolidation of such factors will serve as input for the scenario planning framework, which will be used to identify some likely situations faced by both shippers and carriers in the e-commerce sector in the future. Relevant strategies and recommendations will then be suggested, which serve to improve clarity for e-commerce participants, with regards to the possibilities in the unknown future.