Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/164235
Title: A time-dependent model for seismic risk reduction policy analysis
Authors: Rabonza, Maricar
Lallemant, David
Keywords: Social sciences::Geography::Natural disasters
Engineering::Civil engineering::Structures and design
Science::Mathematics::Applied mathematics::Simulation and modeling
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Rabonza, M. & Lallemant, D. (2018). A time-dependent model for seismic risk reduction policy analysis. 17th U.S.-Japan-New Zealand Workshop on the Improvement of Structural Engineering and Resilience.
Project: NRF–NRFF2018–06 
Conference: 17th U.S.-Japan-New Zealand Workshop on the Improvement of Structural Engineering and Resilience
Abstract: The seismic risk of cities is constantly changing as cities themselves evolve in time. Key to making informed policy decisions to promote resilient cities is the ability to futurecast the risk of cities based on such potential policy decisions. This work demonstrates a flexible stochastic framework for analysing the potential seismic risk trajectories of cities. The model can be used to better understand how various retrofit policy standard and implementation time-frames affect seismic risk over time. Each policy or combination of policies can be compared with each other, and with the baseline case of “doing nothing.” The model therefore serves as a seismic risk reduction policy analysis tool, and also as an advocacy tool, demonstrating that “the risk of doing nothing” is itself a policy decision, usually with the worst of possible consequences. The framework is demonstrated with a hypothetical case-study, which can serve as template for the analysis of real cities.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10356/164235
URL: https://www.atcouncil.org/atc-15-16-presentations
Schools: Asian School of the Environment 
Rights: © 2018 Applied Technology Council. All rights reserved. This paper was published in the Proceedings of 17th U.S.-Japan-New Zealand Workshop on the Improvement of Structural Engineering and Resilience and is made available with permission of Applied Technology Council.
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
Appears in Collections:ASE Conference Papers

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