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Title: Interannual temperature variability is a principal driver of low-frequency fluctuations in marine fish populations
Authors: van der Sleen, Peter
Zuidema, Pieter A.
Morrongiello, John
Ong, Jia Lin J.
Rykaczewski, Ryan R.
Sydeman, William J.
Di Lorenzo, Emanuele
Black, Bryan A.
Keywords: Science::Biological sciences
Issue Date: 2022
Source: van der Sleen, P., Zuidema, P. A., Morrongiello, J., Ong, J. L. J., Rykaczewski, R. R., Sydeman, W. J., Di Lorenzo, E. & Black, B. A. (2022). Interannual temperature variability is a principal driver of low-frequency fluctuations in marine fish populations. Communications Biology, 5(1), 1-8.
Journal: Communications Biology 
Abstract: Marine fish populations commonly exhibit low-frequency fluctuations in biomass that can cause catch volatility and thus endanger the food and economic security of dependent coastal societies. Such variability has been linked to fishing intensity, demographic processes and environmental variability, but our understanding of the underlying drivers remains poor for most fish stocks. Our study departs from previous findings showing that sea surface temperature (SST) is a significant driver of fish somatic growth variability and that life-history characteristics mediate population-level responses to environmental variability. We use autoregressive models to simulate how fish populations integrate SST variability over multiple years depending on fish life span and trophic position. We find that simulated SST-driven population dynamics can explain a significant portion of observed low-frequency variability in independent observations of fisheries landings around the globe. Predictive skill, however, decreases with increasing fishing pressure, likely due to demographic truncation. Using our modelling approach, we also show that increases in the mean and variance of SST could amplify biomass volatility and lessen its predictability in the future. Overall, biological integration of high-frequency SST variability represents a null hypothesis with which to explore the drivers of low-frequency population change across upper-trophic marine species.
ISSN: 2399-3642
DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-02960-y
Schools: Asian School of the Environment 
Rights: © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit
Fulltext Permission: open
Fulltext Availability: With Fulltext
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