A novel survival prediction signature outperforms PAM50 and artificial intelligence-based feature-selection methods

Abstract

The robustness of a breast cancer gene signature, the super-proliferation set (SPS), is initially tested and investigated on breast cancer cell lines from the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopaedia (CCLE). Previously, SPS was derived via a meta-analysis of 47 independent breast cancer gene signatures, benchmarked on survival information from clinical data in the NKI dataset. Here, relying on the stability of cell line data and associative prior knowledge, we first demonstrate through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that SPS prioritizes survival information over secondary subtype information, surpassing both PAM50 and Boruta, an artificial intelligence-based feature-selection algorithm, in this regard. We can also extract higher resolution 'progression' information using SPS, dividing survival outcomes into several clinically relevant stages ('good', 'intermediate', and 'bad) based on different quadrants of the PCA scatterplot. Furthermore, by transferring these 'progression' annotations onto independent clinical datasets, we demonstrate the generalisability of our method on actual patient data. Finally, via the characteristic genetic profiles of each quadrant/stage, we identified efficacious drugs using their gene reversal scores that can shift signatures across quadrants/stages, in a process known as gene signature reversal. This confirms the power of meta-analytical approaches for gene signature inference in breast cancer, as well as the clinical benefit in translating these inferences onto real-world patient data for more targeted therapies.