Evaluating the impact of test-trace-isolate for COVID-19 management and alternative strategies

Abstract

There are many contrasting results concerning the effectiveness of Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategies in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 spread. To shed light on this debate, we developed a novel static-temporal multiplex network characterizing both the regular (static) and random (temporal) contact patterns of individuals and a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated with historical COVID-19 epidemiological data. We estimated that the TTI strategy alone could not control the disease spread: assuming R0 = 2.5, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 24.5%. Increased test capacity and improved contact trace efficiency only slightly improved the effectiveness of the TTI. We thus investigated the effectiveness of the TTI strategy when coupled with reactive social distancing policies. Limiting contacts on the temporal contact layer would be insufficient to control an epidemic and contacts on both layers would need to be limited simultaneously. For example, the infection attack rate would be reduced by 68.1% when the reactive distancing policy disconnects 30% and 50% of contacts on static and temporal layers, respectively. Our findings highlight that, to reduce the overall transmission, it is important to limit contacts regardless of their types in addition to identifying infected individuals through contact tracing, given the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission.