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Title: 中国固定资产投资在资产泡沫中存在的风险与对策 = China's fixed assets investments bubble : risk and policy
Authors: 马荣全 Ma, Rongquan
Keywords: DRNTU::Social sciences::Economic development::China
Issue Date: 2009
Abstract: 在中国固定资产投资增速在高位运行的同时,中国资产泡沫的症状越来越明显。资产价格泡沫是指现代信用经济情况下,资产的市场价格脱离其基础价值而急剧上涨的一种经济现象。2006 年下半年开始,中国经济也出现了以股市和房地产为载体的资产价格泡沫。 尽管货币政策当局己经采取了紧缩性货币政策,但是效果并不明显,资产价格反倒出现了逆势上扬的现象。在中国资产价格泡沫日益显性化的大环境下,本文分析探讨固定资产投资所面临的风险、积极寻找规避与分散中国固定资产投资风险的途径,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。 本文先介绍资产泡沫相关理论,对资产泡沫概念进行清晰的界定,然后指出其一般运行特征与运行规律。接着分析中国固定资产投资现状和资产泡沫现状,以考察二者间的可能关系。作者深入分析翔实的数据后认为:从 2006 年下半年开始,国内存在以房地产市场和股票市场的泡沫现象,并且泡沫被“刺破”的可能性正日益增强。在探讨了资产泡沫大背景下中国固定资产投资的基本情况后,作者以房地产投资为例,提出了一些规避与防范固定资产投资风险的建议。在资产价格泡沫被"刺破”可能性日益增强的今天,各种资源价格都有较大幅度的下降,固定资产投资成本较低。但 2008 年下半年由于美国“次贷危机”导致的全球性经济危机还在深入发展,中国国内资产价格泡沫还是维持的时候,进行固定资产投资的风 险很大,因为形成后的固定资产所产生的收入流的价值较难保证,作者建议可以进一步观望。 While the growth of China's fixed asset investment is running high at the same time, China's asset bubble of the symptoms are becoming evident. Asset price bubbles is, in the modern credit economy, the assets based on market prices from the sharp rise in the value of an economic phenomenon. At present, China's economy have also faced asset price bubble in the stock market and real estate as the carrier. Although monetary policy taken by the authorities tighten monetary policy, but the effect is not significant while asset prices actually rose a contradict phenomenon. Asset price bubbles in China increasingly apparent large environment, this paper analysis of fixed-asset investment risks, and actively look for and distributed to circumvent China's fixed asset investment risk way to an important theoretical and practical significance.
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