Counterfactual explanations on the changes in foreign exchange market

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruption, straining healthcare systems, triggering economic downturns, and reshaping daily life. Lockdowns and restrictions have led to job losses and worsening mental health, while travel restrictions and remote work have altered global mobility. Despite Covid-19 no longer being a global health emergency[1], lessons from the pandemic can shape future policies, focusing on healthcare resilience and economic recovery for many countries. The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the intricate relationship between public health crisis and economic stability, prompting governments worldwide to implement various policies to mitigate its adverse effects. This report investigates the effectiveness of the policies adopted by G10 countries and Singapore in influencing their currency rates and what can be modified to bring a better economic prospect for these countries. The approach taken emphasises explainability, allowing policymakers to understand which policy affects currency rates significantly. Additionally, counterfactual explanations are employed to explore alternative policy scenarios, thereby providing insights into potential strategies for enhancing currency stability in the face of future pandemics.