Examining ASEAN states' foreign policy responses to developing US-China tensions: study of the Philippines and Singapore

Abstract

As China rises in geopolitical and economic influence, the US has to accommodate a strategic competitor. At the same time, ASEAN has become crucial ground for US-China tensions. This paper investigates how Southeast Asian states respond to developments in US-China tensions, and analyses the factors informing their foreign policy decisions. During an order transition, states adopt alignment strategies, such as hedging, balancing and bandwagoning. Hence, this paper operationalises the strategic alignment concepts of hedging and balancing by analysing the case studies of the Philippines and Singapore. The Philippines’ foreign policy has oscillated between hedging and balancing, while Singapore’s foreign policy consistently maintained a hedging position. As Southeast Asian states attempt to find a foreign policy sweet spot when navigating dynamic and volatile US-China developments, it is important to reaffirm small states’ agency in exercising foreign policy decisions.