How expert intuition works in war: the case study of Sir John's decisions during the Marne Campaign (August 22nd-September 10th, 1914)

Abstract

This dissertation focused on the relationship between general intuitions and military effectiveness, which are the two variables of this research. The foundation of this essay was the ‘strategic intuition model’ framework, which ascertains that without three key conditions --- relevant expert experience, a stable operational environment, a learning opportunity --- the commanders could not enhance the overall military effectiveness with their expert intuition. Adopting the case study methodology, this essay applied the model to the case of the performance of Field-Marshal Sir John French during the Marne Campaign between August and September 1914. Analysing his two key decisions --- the decision to retreat after the battle of Mons and the decision to counterstroke during the 7th to 10th in the Marne Campaign, this essay proved that the ‘strategic intuition model’ provides reasonable explanations for certain cases. In addition, it shed light on the studies that tried to answer in what circumstances the expert intuition could improve the military effectiveness. Apart from offering an important case study, the results of this essay proved the usefulness of this analytical tool for future research of this kind.