Changes in concurrent meteorological extremes of rainfall and heat under divergent climatic trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

Concurrent meteorological extremes (CMEs) represent a class of pernicious climatic events characterized by the coexistence of two extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, the juxtaposition of Urban Extreme Rainfall (UER) and Urban Extreme Heat (UEH) can precipitate disproportionately deleterious impacts on both ecological systems and human well-being. In this investigation, we embarked on a meticulous risk appraisal of CMEs within China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA), harnessing the predictive capabilities of three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, in conjunction with the EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model from the CMIP6 suite. The findings evidence a pronounced augmentation in CME occurrences, most notably under the SSP1-2.6 trajectory. Intriguingly, the SSP5-8.5 pathway, typified by elevated levels of greenhouse gas effluents, prognosticated the most intense CMEs, albeit with a temperate surge upon occurrence. Additionally, an ascendant trend in the ratio of CMEs to the aggregate of UER and UEH portends an escalating susceptibility to these combined events in ensuing decades. A sensitivity analysis accentuated the pivotal interplay between UER and UEH as a catalyst for the proliferation of CMEs, modulated by alterations in their respective marginal distributions. Such revelations accentuate the imperative of assimilating intricate interdependencies among climatic anomalies into evaluative paradigms for devising efficacious climate change countermeasures. The risk assessment paradigm proffered herein furnishes a formidable instrument for gauging the calamitous potential of CMEs in a dynamically shifting climate, thereby refining the precision of prospective risk estimations.