Changes to tropical cyclone trajectories in Southeast Asia under a warming climate

Abstract

The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia’s coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of the twenty-first century for both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. Results suggest changes to TC trajectories in Southeast Asia, including: (1) poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification rates; (2) TC formation and fastest intensification closer to many coastlines; (3) increased likelihoods of TCs moving most slowly over mainland Southeast Asia; and (4) TC tracks persisting longer over land. In the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand), these variations result in future increases in both peak TC intensity and TC duration compared to historical TCs.